Our polling partner, the Wall Street Journal, looks at our new data and also finds that Bush has lost the public's ear.
The New York Daily News says Bush "will try to rally Americans around his plans for the country tonight despite approval ratings that rival the worst days of Richard Nixon's presidency."
The AP suggests that Bush's more thematic speech is designed to help him compete with the 2008 presidential contenders and new Democratic leaders" who "present fierce competition for headlines."
There will be a battle of the guest boxes tonight. Speaker Nancy Pelosi will fill her box with former and current Democratic party leaders, including former Speakers Jim Wright and Tom Foley. She'll also steal a page from former President Reagan and all the presidents who've followed by including two September 11 widows. And she's invited the wives of the chairmen and vice chairmen of the Joint Chiefs. New Washington, DC Mayor Adrian Fenty, will also sit in the Pelosi box -- after turning down Laura Bush's invitation to sit with her because the President opposes voting rights for DC. NBC's Andrea Mitchell notes that the practice of inviting heroes or other political guests began when Reagan's staff invited the hero of the Air Florida crash rescue to sit with Nancy Reagan, Mitchell notes.