From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Atlanta holds its mayoral runoff election tomorrow, and it's likely to be decided along racial lines.

The race is between City Councilwoman Mary Norwood, who is white, and former state Sen. Kasim Reed, who is black. Norwood won 46% of the vote on Nov. 3rd, but needed 50% to win outright. Reed, who pulled in 36%, split the black vote in a crowded field of other African-American candidates.

The city is comprised of about 57% African Americans and 38% whites and hasn't had a white mayor since Sam Massell was defeated in 1973. Massell's "runoff campaign slogan was a covert warning to city whites: 'Atlanta's Too Young to Die,'" the Associated Press writes. Massell "lost to Maynard Jackson, who rode 90 percent of the black vote to become Atlanta's first black mayor. That office, along with much of the city's leadership, has been black ever since. For many, Tuesday's vote will determine whether it stays that way.

" 'Atlanta is a black city, a symbol to the world,' political strategist Tom Houck said. 'Putting Mary's face on that picture would be hard for a lot of people to stomach.'"

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution put it this way after the Nov. 3 election: "The path to victory for Atlanta's next mayor is clear, even if the candidates don't want to say it. It's about race. ... This week's mayoral election showed that decades after the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. urged that people not be judged by the color of their skin, blacks and whites in his hometown are voting along racial lines." 

Without trustworthy public polling on the contest so far, political observers have said it's unclear who will prevail. If Norwood "can hold onto her strong support from whtie voters [in Northside Atlanta], and she draws away a respectable minority of black voters, as she did [Nov. 3], she wins...," the Journal-Constitution wrote. If Reed, who was the lesser-known candidate on Nov. 3rd, "can boost his black get-out-the vote effort and bring in supporters of [the third-place candidate], a black woman, he wins."

Even though black voters outnumber whites in Atlanta, a higher percentage of whites showed up at the polls on Nov. 3.

From NBC's Mark Murray
AUSTIN, Tex. -- When GOP governors huddled at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting a year ago in Miami, the party had just suffered another thumping at the polls, Sarah Palin was the unquestioned star attraction, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was urging his party to be more positive and inclusive, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist was seen as a new hope for the GOP. 

But as this year's RGA meeting begins in earnest here deep in the heart of Texas, things have certainly changed. Republicans are now celebrating their wins earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia; Palin is no longer in office and is instead selling her controversial memoir; Pawlenty has become a frequent Obama critic and is emphasizing his conservative views; and Crist (who won't be in attendance) has gone from possible GOP hope to a conservative target in his race for the Senate next year.

Indeed, at least four stories will be on display here at the RGA meeting, which concludes on Thursday night. One, is the GOP poised for a political comeback? Two, looking ahead to 2012, who are the party's potential presidential candidates? (Pawlenty, Louisiana's Bobby Jindal, RGA Chair Haley Barbour of Mississippi, and Indiana's Mitch Daniels will be in attendance.) Three, who are their top gubernatorial candidates for the 2010 midterms? (Ohio's John Kasich, Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett, and Florida's Bill McCollum will be here.) And four, is there really an ideological split inside the party? (While Palin is selling her book today in Michigan, the RGA will be celebrating two Republicans who won, in part, by hugging the middle -- New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie and Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell.)

It's also worth noting how the GOP rhetoric has changed from last year to this year. Here was Pawlenty a year ago in Miami: "People mostly want to follow positive leaders; they don't want to follow cranks." Here was Jindal: "We can't just be the party of 'No.'" Here was even Palin: "We are the minority party, but let us resolve not to become the negative party." Ironically, becoming the party of "No" has paid dividends -- so far -- for the GOP a year after Obama's historic win. The question to ponder is whether that's a sustainable long-term message for the party.

Today's RGA agenda: The public events kick off at 5:30 pm ET with a plenary session entitled "State-Based Solutions." It features Pawlenty, Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Kasich, Corbett, Christie, and McDonnell. Then, at 7:00 pm ET, there's a press briefing to discuss the 2009 campaigns. Speakers include RGA Chairman Barbour, McDonnell, Christie, RGA Executive Director Nick Ayers, and GOP pollster Glen Bolger and Jon Lerner. Finally, at 8:35 pm ET, Perry, Jindal, McDonnell, and Christie speak at a "Victory Barbeque."

Congressional Democrats seem to have two different ideas on what Tuesday's elections meant for their party, the Washington Post says. "[M]oderate and conservative Democrats took a clear signal from Tuesday's voting, warning that the results prove that independent voters are wary of Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending, as well as the growing federal debt. Liberal lawmakers, meanwhile, said the party's shortcoming came in moving too slowly on health-care reform and other items that would satisfy a base becoming disenchanted with the failure to deliver rapid change in government."

Roll Call notes that moderates' opinions on health reform legislation didn't change because of the elections.

The New York Times front-pages, "Republicans emerged from Tuesday's elections energized by victories in Virginia and New Jersey, but their leaders immediately began maneuvering to avoid a prolonged battle with conservative activists over what the party stands for and how to regain power…  Despite Mr. Hoffman's loss [in NY-23], many conservatives promised to press on with opposition to centrist Republican candidates. That vow intensified concerns among party leaders that the opportunities they see coming out of Tuesday's results could be dimmed by intramural battles over whether to reach for the political center or do more to motivate the base on the party's right."

The Washington Post adds that the GOP's "fortunes in next year's midterm elections may rest in its ability to harness a populist wave of voter discontent with Washington and government spending. But the surprising Democratic victory in the New York congressional election -- despite the intervention of conservative activists -- for a seat the GOP held for more than a century was sobering evidence that rallying behind conservative candidates may not be the answer."

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee said there's room in the Republican Party's tent for people like Dede Scozzafava, the resigned Republican nominee in the NY-23 special election, but added, "It doesn't mean I have to support all of them equally." On those with pro-choice and pro-same-sex marriage views, Huckabee said, "Can they be Republican? Yes. Will they get my support? No." However, Huckabee added that he is against third-party candidates, encouraging voters to pick [the party] that you like a little more than you like the other, that you hate the least, get involved in it, and change it."

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), chairman of the Republican Governors Association, denied an ideological rift between conservative and moderate Republicans, but he said the national party must respect the will of voters in their choices for state Republican leaders -- rather than get involved to the level it did in New York's 23rd district special election. Speaking to voters across the country on a "comeback" conference call, Barbour said, "The news media, particularly the left, they want to act like there's some great war going on in the Republican Party between moderate Republicans and conservative Republicans." Regarding the NY-23 race, he said the "crime" there "was the state party chairman allowed a handful of party chairman to pick our nominee… It would have made me mad too if they had tried that in Mississippi."

Barbour encouraged voters to accept that Republican candidates in next year's 37 gubernatorial elections will not be one-size-fits all. "We have to realize we're not going to elect Haley Barbour governor of Vermont. They're going to elect a Republican governor less conservative than I am."

The Boston Globe's take on Tuesday: "Democratic moderates who will determine the fate of much of President Obama's domestic agenda heard an early warning from this week's off-year elections: Congress had better do something about the economy, or sitting lawmakers will lose their jobs in 2010."

Here's a piece by one of us that argues while Republicans got a much-needed boost and Democrats feel good about a congressional race in Upstate New York out of Tuesday night, all three races had much more to do with local issues.

More evidence of a tough climate for incumbent executives? In Long Island, "Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi was hanging onto his job Wednesday by a slim 237-vote lead - with thousands of paper ballots still uncounted. Suozzi took 118,111 votes in Tuesday's election, with GOP challenger Edward Mangano coming close with 117,874 votes, a preliminary tally showed."

From NBC's Kelly Paice
More happened yesterday than just two gubernatorial races and a special congressional election -- key ballot initiatives were voted on across the nation.

To name a few, in Maine, voters repealed the state's law allowing same-sex marriage, a law that was signed by Gov. John Baldacci (D) only six months ago. According to the AP, the repeal passed by a 53%-47% margin. Also, a measure in Washington state that would expand rights and responsibilities to those in same-sex domestic partnerships is ahead 51%-49%, with 50% of precincts counted.

Cha-ching! Ohio voters called for the building of four casinos across the state -- in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.
 
Moreover, voters in Washington state rejected a ballot measure that would have regulated state and local tax revenue. Maine residents also rejected such a "Taxpayer Bill of Rights" initiative.
 
However, Maine did pass a referendum on making medical marijuana dispensaries legal. Maine is the fifth state -- following California, Colorado, New Mexico, and Rhode Island -- to allow the sale of medical marijuana legal at certain locations, according to AP.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Here's a look at the results of the mayoral races -- beyond the higher-profile ones in New York City and Boston.
 
In Atlanta, a six-way race will lead to a December runoff between the top two candidates, city councilwoman Mary Norwood (I) and state Sen. Kasim Reed (D). According to the AP, Norwood received 45% of the vote and Reed got 38%. If elected, Norwood would become the city's first white mayor since 1973.
 
Despite a late September poll showing more Charlotte, NC residents would vote for city councilman John W. Lassiter (R) than his opponent, councilman Anthony Foxx (D), the latter won the election by nearly 3,000 votes, becoming the first Democratic mayor of the city in 21 years.
 
In Ohio, the Democratic incumbent Mayors Mark Mallory of Cincinnati and Frank G. Jackson of Cleveland won re-election. Both supported the Ohio ballot initiative authorizing casino construction in four cities.
 
Former fire chief and Democrat-turned-independent Mike Bell defeated Democrat (and high school classmate) Keith Wilkowski, 52%-48%. Bell supports the approved casino initiative in Toledo.
 
Detroit mayor and former NBA star Dave Bing (D) received 58% of the vote to win his first full term after replacing scandal-plagued ex-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick in a May special election.
 
In Houston, the top two contenders in a four-way race will head to a December runoff. City Controller Annise Parker (D) will face off against former city attorney Gene Locke for three-term Mayor Bill White's (D) open seat. Parker, who received 31% of Tuesday's vote to Locke's 25%, would be the city's first openly gay mayor.
 
With all precincts reporting, the Miami open seat went to Havana-born commissioner and former television reporter Tomás Regalado (R), who bested fellow Republican commissioner Joe Sanchez, 72%-28%.
 
Incumbent Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D-Farmer Labor Party) beat ten challengers, none of whom have held recent political office, in a primary-less election. Thought to be contemplating a run for governor, Rybak was "coy" about his aspirations last night, telling the MinnPost, "I'm going to take a deep breath, go back to work... I may enter that [gubernatorial] race. Let the dust settle."
 
Twenty-nine-year-old Mayor Luke Ravenstahl (D) won his first full term in office after he won a special election in 2007 to replace his predecessor Bob O'Conner, who died months into office from a rare brain cancer in September 2006. He beat out Franco "Doc" Harris, the namesake son of the Hall of Fame Steelers running back.
 
The Seattle mayoral race is still too close to call, but environmental activist Mike McGinn (D) held a 910-vote lead over T-Mobile executive Joe Mallahan in early returns on Tuesday night. The next vote count will be released this afternoon, according to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.
 
In St. Paul, incumbent mayor Chris Coleman (D) beat political first-timer Eva Ng (R), 68%-26%. Coleman is rumored to be considering a gubernatorial bid, and would not take Ng up on a pledge that he would not seek higher office if re-elected.
 
Finally, former St. Petersburg city councilman Bill Foster (R) defeated his former council colleague Kathleen Ford (D) to fill term-limited mayor Rick Baker's seat. With all precincts reporting, Foster had more than 52% of the vote, with Ford pulling just over 47%.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The 2009 gubernatorial elections provided a much-needed momentum boost for Republicans after back-to-back election cycle drubbings.

But the GOP victories in New Jersey and Virginia don't necessarily tell us all that much about how the party will fare in next year's midterm elections: Gubernatorial races generally say less about the national dynamic than they do local issues, and that's certainly true this year.

In New Jersey, Chris Christie's win over Jon Corzine demonstrated that under the right circumstances the GOP can be successful in a blue state. He pulled it off by capitalizing on the state's troubled economic environment.

Virginia's gubernatorial race was for an open seat -- as it incredibly is every four years -- and it was an uphill battle for the Democrats from the beginning. Democrat Creigh Deeds was not a solid candidate, but there were few, if any, alternatives, who could have beaten Bob McDonnell, a solid candidate.

Upstate New Yorkers don't like carpetbaggers. The Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, didn't live in the district, became the national candidate, and didn't have a command of local issues. The local candidate who best understood that district -- Democrat Bill Owens -- won.

For more, read the full story here.

From NBC's Mark Murray
On MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," White House adviser David Axelrod today argued that it would be wrong to read too much into last night's GOP gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia -- and what they might mean for next year's midterm elections.

And if you read us earlier this morning, Axelrod does seem to have a point.

But looking back at First Read's coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel -- then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and now White House chief of staff -- had called us to argue the very point Republicans are now making: that the two gubernatorial contests say something about the upcoming midterms.

Here's what we wrote then:

Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, calling First Read immediately after Kaine's and Corzine's victories were announced, argued that it's clear Democratic voters were already energized earlier in the year when Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a traditionally GOP-leaning Ohio House district. "I think that's even more true today." He also pointed out that the mayors of Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Paul, MN were all losing.  "A lot of incumbents are losing to change," he said (although he neglected to mention that these three mayors are Democrats, though the one from St. Paul endorsed Bush last year).

*** UPDATE *** Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's office also sends along this Nov. 2005 Roll Call piece. "In an interview last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) said that regardless of the results, the gubernatorial outcomes stand to have a huge effect on how 2006 is viewed. 'Whatever the outcome of those elections, it will have an impact on people's interpretations of the upcoming election,' Emanuel said, adding that Democratic wins across the board could have a positive impact on the party's 2006 recruiting efforts."

From NBC's Madeline Rullo
At House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's weekly briefing today, she commented on last night's elections, simply stating, "We won last night."

Question: "Madame speaker, Madame speaker, do the election results last night -- do they make it harder for you to pass health care, especially to get the support from members in these swing districts?"

Pelosi's answer: "From my perspective, we won last night. We had one race that we were engaged in -- it was in northern New York. It was a race where a Republican has held a seat since the Civil War, and we won that seat. So from our standpoint, no. We had a candidate that was victorious who supports the health-care reform... So from our standpoint, we picked up voted last night, one in California [CA-10] and one in New York."

What conservatives just don't get about NY-23's message

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The morning after, conservative idol Sarah Palin's message for the tribe was essentially: The sky IS red, conservatives.

A defiant Palin wrote on her Facebook page last night, "The race for New York's 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010."

You betcha!

Those who thought a loss for the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, was a setback for the conservative movement are probably right, but that's no matter to Palin-ites. They'd argue they only lost because the stodgy Republican establishment didn't embrace Hoffman SOONER.

That's highly arguable, considering Hoffman's lack of knowledge of local issues, his carpetbagger status (he doesn't live in NY-23), and his just overall poor appearance as a candidate. He was always more of an idea. He wouldn't even meet with the Syracuse Post-Standard's editorial board, but who could blame him after his disastrous appearance before the local Watertown Daily Times.

It wrote on Oct. 23rd that Hoffman "showed no grasp of the bread-and-butter issues pertinent to district residents...." He spoke "generally" about national issues, with "no details." 

It continued, "A flustered and ill-at-ease Mr. Hoffman objected to the heated questioning, saying he should have been provided a list of questions he might be asked. He was, if he had taken the time to read the Thursday morning Times editorial raising the very same questions."

Regardless of ideology, that is incredible and inexcusable for a candidate.

But that doesn't matter to the Tea Partiers. As the Watertown paper wrote in the same editorial, Tea Party chief Dick Armey "dismissed regional concerns as 'parochial' issues that would not determine the outcome of the election."

Last night proved otherwise. But don't tell that to conservatives.

Here's Palin's full post: 

A Victory for Common Sense and Fiscal Sanity
Yesterday at 9:43pm
Congratulations to the new Governors-Elect of Virginia and New Jersey! I'd also like to offer a special word of support to the new Lieutenant Governor-Elect of New Jersey, Kim Guadagno, the first woman to hold that office.

Of course, the real victors in this election are the ordinary men and women who voted for positive change and a return to fiscal sanity. Your voices have been heard.

The race for New York's 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010. The issues of this election have always centered on the economy – on the need for fiscal restraint, smaller government, and policies that encourage jobs. In 2010, these issues will be even more crucial to the electorate. I commend Doug Hoffman and all the other under-dog candidates who have the courage to put themselves out there and run against the odds.

To the tireless grassroots patriots who worked so hard in that race and to future citizen-candidates like Doug, please remember Reagan's words of encouragement after his defeat in 1976:

"The cause goes on. Don't get cynical because look at yourselves and what you were willing to do, and recognize that there are millions and millions of Americans out there that want what you want, that want it to be that way, that want it to be a shining city on a hill."

The cause goes on.

- Sarah Palin

"Republicans swept contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday as voters went to the polls filled with economic uncertainty, dealing President Obama a setback and building momentum for a Republican comeback attempt in next year's midterm Congressional elections," the New York Times writes. "But in a closely watched Congressional race in upstate New York, a Democrat who received a late push from the White House triumphed over a conservative candidate who attracted national backers ranging from Rush Limbaugh to Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor." 

The Times' Nagourney adds, "The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles." 

The Washington Post's Balz: "Off-year elections can be notoriously unreliable as predictors of the future, but as a window on how the political landscape may have changed in the year since President Obama won the White House, Tuesday's Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey delivered clear warnings for the Democrats. Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections."

Politico: "The off-year elections were, in two big races, an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama's political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy." 

The Hill: "Republicans received a shot in the arm Tuesday night with wins in two governorships previously held by Democrats, even while Democrats padded their majority in Congress. The wins, in Virginia and New Jersey, will give the GOP hope that independent voters may be giving the party a second look after a year of total Democratic control."

Norm Ornstein on last night: The "largest variable by far is local forces -- the candidates, the personalities, local issues, local political history. Right up there is the state of the economy, especially for gubernatorial races involving incumbents. Lagging substantially behind would be national forces and the president. To be sure, the national forces are not negligible. The president's party usually has headaches in midterms, not least because of a typical pattern of an intensity gap; the out-party's strongest adherents get increasingly angry, intense and motivated as time passes and they realize how awful it is to be out of power; the in-party's strongest adherents grow progressively more disillusioned as their sky-high hopes that their president would give them everything on their wish lists get shattered or hopelessly diluted. If you are angry, you want to get up, go outside and punch somebody. If you are disappointed, you want to get in bed and pull the covers over your head. In low-turnout elections, that is enough to make a big difference.
 
"This year the partisan generic voting gap for all potential voters is little different than it was when Obama and his Democrats won in a landslide -- i.e., a sizable Democratic advantage. But the advantage narrows significantly for registered voters and essentially disappears for likely voters. Even so, those local factors still are the most important. Bad candidates can blow intensity advantages; good candidates can overcome intensity deficits."

In CA-10, John Garamendi won the special election there 55%-40% with 50% of precincts reporting last night. Garamendi doesn't live in the district. 

By the way, "After months of speculation but few  public appearances, former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly  Fiorina was expected to announce her plans Wednesday for the U.S. Senate seat held by liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer of California. Fiorina's campaign said she was to make 'a major announcement' during an appearance at a business in the Orange County city of Garden Grove Wednesday morning," the AP says.

"Maine voters overturned the state's same-sex marriage law yesterday, delivering a potentially crushing blow to gay-rights advocates after a year when their cause seemed to be gaining momentum with legislative and legal victories in four states. As the ballot counting continued well past midnight, the margin continued to grow -- with 52.7 percent of voters in favor of the repeal -- and the Associated Press called the contest in favor of gay-marriage foes shortly before 1 a.m. The 'people's veto' came six months after Maine's law was approved, and one year after California voters rejected gay marriage by a similar margin."